Why Nigeria's Middle Belt can predict its next President
Nigeria's middle belt and political leaders

Before Franklin D. Roosevelt’s (fondly known as FDR) triumphant re-election campaign in 1936, the tiny state of Maine in the Northeastern region of the USA was considered a bellwether state for presidential elections. By bellwether, I mean that you could predict which way presidential elections would go by closely watching Maine.
 

Key takeaways:

  1. Political watchers always try to identify swing regions in national elections. These areas tend to be hotly contested by political parties.

  2. Over time, the North-Central has emerged as a swing region in Nigerian presidential politics.

  3. The reasons for this are the region’s religious and ethnic diversity, which are a direct consequence of its history.

 

For over a century, between 1820 and 1932, Maine’s election of its Governor, which happened a few months before the November presidential elections, was considered an accurate prediction of the party that would win the presidential election.

It led to the saying in

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Joachim MacEbong

Joachim MacEbong

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