September 2025 North Africa Macro Outlook

Executive summary

In August, North African economies showed resilience and a mixed macroeconomic performance. Inflation decreased in Egypt and Tunisia, while it rose marginally in Morocco. Still, growth prospects remain positive, indicating an improvement in output levels in the near term that will continue to shore up investor confidence in the region. For instance, Egypt’s non-oil purchasing managers' index, although still below the 50-point benchmark, rose to a five-month high of 49.5 points in July as the recovery in consumer demand and employment levels improved. In Morocco, unemployment decreased to 12.8% in Q2 2025, emphasising economic resilience.
Currency performance is also upbeat in the region, with the Egyptian pound and Moroccan dirham gaining 0.1% and 1.4% respectively m/m. The performance of these currencies is underpinned by a weaker US dollar, rising tourism revenues, improving remittances and healthy reserves. However, risks persist, especially