October 2025 West Africa Macro Outlook

Executive summary

Western African markets exhibited diverse macroeconomic trends in September, with varying inflation and currency performance. Inflation in Ghana declined to a five-year low of 9.4% in September, and in Nigeria, it decreased for the fifth consecutive month in August, driven by lower prices for food and fuel. Meanwhile, in Guinea and Senegal, inflation rose due to currency pressures increasing imported costs and higher domestic commodity prices, respectively. The inflation dynamics indicate a gradual recovery in consumer demand within the region, as household income remains relatively constrained and consumers will continue to prioritise necessities, primarily food, over non-essentials.
In light of the divergent inflation trends, interest-rate decisions also vary. While the BCEAO retained its interest rate at 5.25%, exercising caution over excessive monetary easing to contain regional price growth, the Bank of Ghana embarked on another significant rate