October 2025 East Africa Macro Outlook

Contents

  • Executive summary
  • Ethiopia
  • Kenya
  • Rwanda
  • Uganda
  • Quarterly & annual data tables

Executive summary

East African economies continue to demonstrate resilience, with an average GDP growth rate of 7%. In Q2 2025, economic activities in both Kenya (+5%) and Rwanda (+7.8%) expanded significantly, suggesting sustained momentum that will support output levels, employment, and medium-term prosperity across the region.

Beyond growth, inflation trends were mixed in September. While Rwanda and Ethiopia saw annual price deceleration, easing to 6.4% and 13.6% in August, respectively, Kenya and Uganda experienced slight price increases. In Kenya, higher food costs ahead of the short rainy season drove the uptick. Still, softer energy and transportation costs, supported by low global oil prices, helped temper household living costs. Meanwhile, the shilling's strength in Uganda continued to suppress imported inflation.

The currency environment is generally favourable, as most countries in the region benefit from strong tourism, remittances, and capital inflows from offshore

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Stears Research

Stears Research

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