Global trade dynamics remain strained, as persistent trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty continue to disrupt supply chains, elevate costs, and hinder market efficiency. However, a thaw in Middle East tensions has bolstered global risk appetite, fueling increased capital inflows into South Africa and Zambia. Export earnings were supported by stable commodity prices, providing a cushion for external balances. In contrast, the impasse in US-EU trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s July 9, 2025, tariff deadline clouds export prospects.
De-escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have eased safe-haven capital outflows, stabilising Southern African currencies. In June, the South African rand (ZAR) and the Zambian kwacha (ZMW) appreciated, supported by robust export earnings, proactive central bank measures, solid reserve buffers, and a rebound in investor confidence. While both currencies are expected to remain broadly stable, moderate downside risks persist due to
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