Contents
- Executive Summary
- Egypt
- Morocco
- Quarterly & Annual Data Tables
Executive summary
- Although global geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty remain prolonged, the recent de-escalation in Middle East hostilities sparked a shift toward risk-on sentiment, driving capital inflows into emerging markets such as Egypt and Morocco. Healthy oil prices supported Egypt’s export earnings, while elevated phosphate prices (around $120/ton) reinforced Morocco’s export performance. However, stalled US-EU trade talks, with President Trump’s July 9, 2025, tariff deadline looming, pose a risk to export-dependent growth in the region.
- Easing tensions between Israel and Iran supported currency gains across North Africa, with the Egyptian pound (EGP) and Moroccan dirham (MAD) appreciating in June. Near-term stability is expected for both currencies, underpinned by resilient investor sentiment, solid FX reserves, remittance inflows, and sustained capital investment. Nonetheless, geopolitical volatility and fiscal constraints could introduce renewed pressure.
- In Egypt, inflation remains elevated, with headline inflation rising to 16.8% y/y in
