How Nigeria’s fourth attempt at democracy has evolved

By now, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s “Èmi Lọ Kàn” (Yoruba for “It is my turn”) phrase has entered the Nigerian political lexicon.

Some view the phrase as the stunning entitlement of one of the biggest beneficiaries of Nigeria’s democracy. By others, it is also seen as the battle cry of a man who has been at the top of Nigerian politics for over 20 years and now feels his time has come to dominate.
 

Those who believe it is the turn of the former Lagos governor point to his role in uniting the opposition. They say he was the driving force behind the coalition, which forced the PDP from power in 2015. In some ways, Tinubu’s journey from opposition to front-runner in the presidential elections is a microcosm of a wider democratic evolution which has taken six election cycles.

As we look ahead to the 2023 elections, it is useful to look back at where we are coming from and identify some key events in Nigeria’s recent political history to determine how we arrived here. Using the historical data compiled by Stears, we will examine how Nigeria’s fourth attempt at democracy has evolved, going from one big party to two main parties.

Let us begin from the middle. Is 2008 the middle?
 

Peak PDP

Vincent Ogbulafor became PDP chairman in 2007. In 2008, he made waves when he said that the PDP would rule for 60 years. Around the world, there are examples of political parties in democracies that have ruled for a long time. In Mexico, the centre-right Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ruled for 71 years, from 1929 to 2000, returning briefly to power between 2012 and 2018. Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP) has been in power for 63 years. Like the PRI, the PAP is also on the centre-right of the ideological spectrum.

At the time, it felt like the PDP was headed in this direction. After the 2007 elections, the party held 78% of governorships (28/36), 80% of Senate seats (87/109 seats) and 73% of seats in the House of Representatives (263/360 seats). In many ways, 2007 was Peak PDP. They were the only game in town.

That dominance, however, was built on no small measure of ‘garrison politics’, which involved a lot of intimidation and electoral manipulation, especially in 2003 and 2007. This had the effect of hollowing out the opposition. The conduct of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under Maurice Iwu, who was chairman of the commission from 2005 to 2010, made all this possible.

But Nigeria’s Fourth Republic (or 4th attempt at democracy) didn’t begin like that. The PDP were indeed the only national party, retaining some of the elements of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), which held power in the Second Republic. However, there was a fairly pronounced regional flavour, with the Alliance for Democracy (AD) controlling the South-West and the All People’s Party (APP) controlling parts of the North.

However, in the 2003 elections, a dominant PDP led by Obasanjo, who claimed a second term, flushed down most of AD’s South-West control.

The chart below shows that PDP's winning streak was not at the presidential level alone.

2003 was the first time that Buhari ran for the presidency, and he united much of the Northern vote behind him but had little appeal in the rest of the country.

Then came the "Third Term Agenda" in 2005/2006, an attempt to amend the constitution to allow Obasanjo run for a third term. Having only recently exited military rule, this would have set Nigeria on the path to having presidents who could perpetuate themselves in office. It was resisted in the end and by 2007, with a pliant Maurice Iwu at INEC and an opposition largely in disarray, the ruling party romped home.
 

Let’s form Voltron

Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent visit to Chatham House was not his first time there. He also gave a speech in July 2011, after that year's presidential elections, titled: “Democracy in Nigeria and the Rebirth of Opposition”. Below is an excerpt that would prove prophetic.

In the end, the opposition parties danced with each other but did not embrace. Our constant dancing however confused the public and partially doused some of the public’s enthusiasm. It was a learning experience that will not be repeated in the next election. A unified ticket would have made for a more competitive race and the final outcome would have been different.

You may recall the animated series Voltron, a giant robot formed by five smaller ones, complete with a blazing sword. Opposition forces determined correctly that the only way to confront a national party was with another national party. For that party to form, however, they needed a series of mistakes by the PDP. But before that, they also needed to rebuild.

Many times, the means by which electoral victory is achieved contains the seeds of its own demise. The 2007 elections was one such example. Those flawed elections presented opportunities for the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to challenge certain defeats in court. Defeats in governorship elections in Ekiti, Osun, Edo and Ondo were overturned at election tribunals. Forensic scientist Adrian Forty’s testimony in 2008 was crucial in determining the widespread voter fraud that saw the Action Congress—as it was then called—lose those elections. Reclaiming those mandates was crucial in rebuilding morale in an opposition that seemed at a low ebb. As recounted by Tinubu in the same speech referenced above, the ACN hired 52 British forensic experts and ten Israeli experts to prove the PDP’s large-scale fraud.

To unseat the PDP, simply reclaiming mandates would not be enough. They needed more people, read: governors. But how to get them? How, indeed.

Mistakes by the ruling party always help. One major mistake made by Goodluck Jonathan was the fight with the influential leader of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) at the time, Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State. With Amaechi in his second term as governor, the presidency attempted to split the NGF into two, with Jonah Jang of Plateau controlling one faction. It backfired royally.

By November 2013, Amaechi had formally decamped to the new mega-party with four other PDP governors, who called themselves nPDP, where 'n' stands for new. They were joined by Bola’s Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All-Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), and the Imo faction of APGA led by Rochas Okorocha. Many lawmakers in these  parties and factions followed suit thereafter.

In a clever move, the APC gave the decampers automatic tickets to secure their loyalty. This move, combined with a worsening security problem and its perception as a corrupt administration, the momentum was firmly against the Jonathan administration as we entered 2015.

The result? Overnight, the PDP got pushed into the minority. They lost the presidency and adjusted to life in the opposition in both the Senate and House of Representatives.

Sixty years was over in just 16 years—life comes at you fast.

"Third Force" rising?

The events of this 2023 election cycle suggest that those who hope for an alternative to the now-established APC-PDP duopoly could be in luck. 

But what precisely is powering Peter Obi and the Labour Party? The answer brings us to our final chart, showing voter turnout.

Turnout in 2019 and the elections since then are some of the lowest on record.

Only 35% of eligible voters cast their votes for president in 2019. In the Anambra gubernatorial elections in 2021,10% turnout was recorded. Large numbers of people have checked out of electoral politics in Nigeria. This appears it is about to change, with potentially significant consequences for Nigeria’s political space. 

Let’s do a quick calculation together: roughly the same number of people voted in 2015 and 2019, while the number of registered voters increased. In 2019 there were 84 million registered voters and 68 million in 2015. This time, we have about 93.5 million registered voters. It means that up to 63 million people did not vote in 2015 or 2019, but can now vote. What happens when even a fraction of that number heads to the ballot box in 32 days?

Other developments make 2023 the best time for a third party to make a big splash. The amendments to the Electoral Act—signed by President Buhari in February 2022—enshrine the use of technology through the Biometric Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), electronic transmission of results, and redefining over-voting which places a hard cap on the use of uncollected PVCs to rig elections. Taken together, this means that the will of Nigerians will be clearer than ever before.
 

What happens next?

After four cycles of having one national party and two cycles of the APC-PDP duopoly, the current status quo is about to be challenged. What becomes of that challenge, however, remains to be seen. Will we see a tsunami of peaceful uprising against the existing state of affairs that has not produced dividends, a minor puddle which dissipates, or something in between?

These are all million-dollar questions. What we know for sure is that the unfolding of this drama will be fascinating. We also know those who don’t vote decide the outcome of elections as much as those who do.

So, go vote.

P.S. If you have registered and not yet collected your PVC, you still have till January 29th to do this. Remember, #VotingIsEverything.