Executive summary
- The dollar has risen moderately since the recent US elections, with expectations of stronger economic growth under a Trump presidency exerting pressure on emerging market currencies. On average, the nine currencies tracked on the Stears Africa FX monitor depreciated by 0.2% m/m in November 2024. The strengthening dollar presents another challenge for interest rate decisions, as policymakers closely monitor interest differentials relative to the US.
- The outcome of the US elections forebode potential policy shifts that have increased policy uncertainty in Africa. These shifts could impact trade relations, foreign aid, and investment flows, creating a more challenging environment for African economies in the medium term. In Ghana, anticipation and speculation around the December 7, 2024 elections could further heighten political and economic uncertainty.
- The economic growth outlook for major African economies is broadly positive. IMF projections for real GDP growth are: South Africa at 1.1% in 2024, 1.5% in 2025,
