Buhari’s legacy: Leaving Nigeria on autopilot

I will never forget the day Buhari won the 2015 election.

There was this collective joy and relief around the country—we were excited for the “change” that was about to come. Finally, no more PDP, the party that ruled the country since 1999 and squandered our resources. It was time for Nigeria to reach its full potential, we thought. In fact, newspapers reported that at least 25 people had died while celebrating Buhari’s win. It was that bad.

Buhari won on the narrative of change, anti-corruption, and a retired general who will put Boko Haram in their place.

And so, we waited…
 

Fast forward to 100 days after his inauguration, and it was already clear that something was amiss. Nigerians had gone from shouting “Sai Baba” with a lot of energy to kissing their teeth. “We call him Baba go slow now”, we all muttered.

The new president had inherited an economy that was surely heading for bad times. Oil prices had tanked, and total reported fatalities had gone from 1,000 in 2008 to over 11,000 by 2015. Within Buhari’s first 100 days, Boko Haram had killed at least 1,000 people through suicide bombings. And yet, the President had failed to provide some direction on how to deal with the crisis that loomed. For me, the penny dropped when Buhari finally announced his cabinet—six months after he arrived at Aso Rock.
 

Any change or no change?

As things stand today, there has been “change”, but things still feel the same, if not worse. Yes, fatalities dropped from 11,000 to just below 5,000 by 2017, but last year, this number was back to 10,600. And while Boko Haram-led fatalities have dropped by 95% compared to 2014, the combination of the Lake Chad Islamic state, unidentified groups, and Fulani ethnic militia killed just as many Nigerians last year as Boko Haram did in 2014.

And as for the economy, GDP per capita has fallen from $2,700 in 2015 to $2,400 in 2021—a likely factor in the rising insecurity. 

How did we get here? Well, there have been many mistakes made by the government, but the one that stands out for me is Buhari’s lack of leadership, willpower to govern, energy, and an approach of “whatever happens, happens”.

Effectively, Buhari checked out of leading the country and left it on autopilot. And in his absence, others (who have even less accountability to electorates) have filled the power vacuum.

Take the issue of corruption, for example. Buhari sold himself to us as a man who wouldn’t steal a kobo. And at the risk of sounding naive, that image has not changed too much. For sure, by being in Aso Rock, more money has swung his way, but he still doesn’t come across as an individual who is greedy or desperate to acquire wealth in office.

However, the same cannot be said for everyone around him.
 

All talk, no action

What is the point of having a president who is against corruption if he does not hold those around him accountable to the same standards? Thinking about it deeper, it’s not that Buhari is so passionate about anti-corruption; he just doesn’t care. Rich or poor, he’s fine “whatever happens, happens”.

How else can you explain what occurred on the 1st of December?

Imagine this news headline: Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, says he personally witnessed an MP stealing £120,000. 

Crazy right? It’s the kind of story that will send shockwaves across the country. Not only would the MP be out of a job and face charges, but the Prime Minister might also face pressure to resign.

Well, the first half of this story happened in Nigeria last Thursday, and I am pretty sure that not everyone came across it. In a speech at the Villa, Buhari said he had personal experience of a governor stealing funds meant for the government. At this point, It is better I quote him: “This is my personal experience. If the money from the Federation Account to the state is about ₦100 million, ₦50 million will be sent to the chairman, but he will sign that he received ₦100 million. The governor will pocket the balance and share it with whoever he wants to share it with.” 

“This is what’s happening. This is Nigeria. It’s a terrible thing…” he goes on to say.

Now, does this sound like the president of a country (who, by the way, is against corruption) or a helpless writer who can only cry out on a piece of paper and hope that someone listens? He explains this story as if it is the norm, and he is powerless against the problem.

Why? Because he doesn’t care. 

This has been the theme of Buhari’s presidency. The worst has been happening right under his nose, but he has watched like a bystander. Have a browse through Buhari’s tweets, and you will see that he is fond of making comments about the country as if he was a mere citizen who can only exclaim, “God help us.”

By standing on the side, Buhari has left empty vacuums across the government.

And as a result, everything has been sluggish, from our delay in joining the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) to our response to the flooding and oil production crises. He just hasn’t moved with energy.

In the meantime, others have seen it as an opportunity to grab onto power. Since the start of the current administration, there have been reports of a cabal who are really in charge of running the country. Rumours of people signing for the president or changing his decisions have been stuck in our airwaves since 2015. True or false, the economist that I am has paid attention to one man who wasn’t part of the cabal but created a new power entirely.

In the absence of any economic direction, Godwin Emefiele has pushed the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from being the country’s banker to the country’s economist, farmer, manufacturer, electrician, and security agent. At one point, the bank became a vehicle to push for political office. 

During the six months where we had no cabinet in 2015, Emefiele and the president visited farms in Kebbi state to launch the Anchor Borrowers Program (ABP)—a scheme created to provide farmers with single-digit loans. We didn’t know it then, but as Buhari opted to fly abroad instead, Emefiele continued his state tours as the ABP provided credit to at least four million farmers. The country was stunned when these same farmers spent ₦100 million to buy the CBN governor a nomination form to run for president under APC. 

Emefiele was so bold about his ambitions that he asked a court to stop the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) from blocking his presidential bid. Emefiele didn’t just want to run for president. He wanted to do it while being the CBN governor. He argued that  Section 84 (12) of the Electoral Act, which stops individuals in public offices from running, did not apply to him.

This is the same CBN governor that INEC will soon have to trust with securing sensitive election materials.

What did Buhari do as his CBN governor crossed all types of lines? Nothing.

This is just one of many individuals who have filled the vacuum Buhari has left open. And this is just one instance of a situation that under no circumstance should be happening in a democratic society. Yet, it is the legacy that Buhari leaves behind—a country where those beneath him could do as they pleased, including stealing significant chunks of our oil.
 

Weak legacy

A major reason why Bola Tinubu ended up as the presidential candidate for the APC is that Buhari didn’t care who succeeded him. Many political analysts will tell you that he didn’t like Tinubu or even the VP, but he didn’t decide who should be next.

Now, I am not trying to push for godfatherism here, but almost every leader gets involved in their succession process. But not Buhari. Governors visited and visited, but each time they got nothing. He asked them to choose as they pleased. Without leadership or direction, the person with the most cash won the primaries. On primary election day, there was still an expectation that maybe Buhari’s speech would suggest a particular candidate, but we got nothing.

Looking at the next crop of presidential candidates, it is hard to be hopeful for someone who will give Nigeria the direction and energy it needs—both figuratively and literally. Of course, there’s Peter Obi, who seems to be the best option for this, but he also has the smallest chance of winning out of the major parties (APC, PDP, and LP). Then there’s Tinubu, who has shown that he is not scared to make his opinions known and can move agendas and people around, but old age will be a barrier for him—just like Buhari. And finally, there’s Atiku, who is struggling to show impetus for some reason—PDP’s manifesto was vague and spineless, especially as the main opposition party.

Honestly, I can’t say what will happen after any of these people enter the Villa. And after 2015, I will be cautious of anyone who claims to know. They will inherit an economy and civil service that has become used to running on vibes. Changing that mentality will not be easy, but Nigeria needs to shake off what has been eight years of “go slow”.