In the forthcoming weeks, the central banks of Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa will convene to deliberate on monetary policy. Given the current global economic climate and internal pressures, we expect these monetary authorities to sustain a tight monetary policy stance. This approach addresses ongoing inflationary pressures, mitigates currency volatility triggered by a strengthening US dollar, and sets favourable inflation and exchange rate expectations. The following sections provide our projections for each country, outlining the drivers of these policy decisions and their potential economic consequences.
Nigeria
For the 16th consecutive month, Nigeria’s inflation surged to 33.69% in April 2024, closely aligning with Stears’ bear forecast of 33.91%. The principal drivers—escalating food and energy costs—continue to exert upward pressure. Despite a temporary appreciation earlier this year, the naira has recently experienced a downturn since mid-April, likely exacerbating inflation through increased costs of imported goods, particularly food. Given these conditions, the
