A data story on Nigeria's next governors

Have you decided who gets your vote for governor during the 2023 elections?

There is reasonably less fanfare for governorship than the presidential elections, but we can’t overemphasise governors' more profound influence on our lives. It’s their responsibility to provide infrastructure and an environment that ensures our quality of living. The provision of public primary and secondary school education for our children and the regulation of private schools lies in their hands. Sanitation, water, and roads are also part of their duties, as the federal powers can only do so much.
 

So zooming in on gubernatorial races, this article will provide three major insights (3Ts) on Nigeria's governors using the Stears Elections database from 2015, 2019 and 2023. As we will see shortly, Nigeria’s governors and upcoming gubernatorial candidates are mostly affiliated with two parties; they are too male and, finally, too old.

Let’s start with the first T.
 

Two parties

All but one of Nigeria’s governors are either APC or PDP members. Beyond presidential elections, states are another reason All Progressive Congress and Peoples Democratic Party are commonly referred to as Nigeria’s leading political parties. 

From the map below, it is clear that being a member of the APC or PDP is a striking trait of Nigeria’s sitting governors.

In the 24 years of Nigeria’s longest uninterrupted democracy, the historical trend has been similar, with two major parties sharing governorship states across Nigerian states. Anambra’s Chukwuma Soludo is the country’s only governor ruling under a party (APGA) different from APC and PDP. This is despite having at least ten political parties represented in every state during elections.

These two parties are formidable due to their war chest—money, resources, extensive reach across the country, and their political structure. For instance, the income party nomination forms provided unverified estimates of as much as  ₦7 billion to  ₦13 billion for APC in 2019, reaching as high as ₦30 billion this year.

With 31 governorship seats to be filled this year—28 in March and three more sometime before the year ends—the leading parties are again well-positioned to take up the available seats. Unlike other parties with limited representation, e.g. Accord having 15 candidates out of 31 possible seats, APC and PDP are represented by 27 candidates each across all states.

So, if you want to elect a governor based on vested interests in residents’ welfare or other reasons, the candidates with the best chance of winning (based on party reach) will likely come from PDP or APC.

Moving on to the next T, what does data say about the gender of Nigeria’s governors?
 

Too many men

The gender of Nigeria’s governors is prominently, recurrently, and 100% male.

It is unsurprisingly embarrassing, especially when you see other African countries with better representation of their citizens.

For example, Kenyan women have risen to the challenge of political leadership in at least two straight election cycles. Reports showed that last year Kenyans elected seven female governors, up from three in 2017, three female senators, the same number as in 2017, and 30 female MPs, up from 23 in 2017. Similarly, three out of four vice-presidential candidates were female, and double the number of women battled it out for gubernatorial seats in 2022 compared with previous elections. This state of affairs has not come about by chance. Kenya has specific quotas for women in politics, as highlighted here.

In comparison, the Nigerian data, especially for the governorship seats, is underwhelming. As shown below, very little has changed over time. 

It will be incredibly lonely for any woman who finds herself at the top of state governance in Nigeria. Only two women have served as state governors in Nigeria’s democratic history.

The first was Virginia Etiaba of Anambra state, installed when the previous governor, Peter Obi, was impeached by the state legislature for alleged gross misconduct. She transferred her powers back to Obi when an appeal court nullified the impeachment. She served Anambra residents for three months between November 2006 and February 2007 in Anambra state.

The second woman is Kaduna state’s current deputy governor Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe, the first female deputy governor and the first woman to act as governor in Northern Nigeria. Like Virginia, she served as the state’s governor temporarily in October 2019 and later in 2020 while the elected governor Nasir Elrufai recovered from Covid-19.

So although women constitute almost half of the electorate, the top layer in politics, specifically governorships, is almost exclusively male. For this reason, you are more likely to find more women opting to be deputies and fewer women in other elected positions beyond governors. For instance, from 1999 to 2019, female representation in the national parliament and state assemblies was less than 6%.  It is not so different for local government chairpersons and councillors, who are at 9% and 6%, respectively.

This poor level of women's representation is due to barriers from the stereotypical traditional roles of homemaking and child-rearing to the prohibitive costs that prevent equal participation.  

We recently argued for adopting quotas to intensify efforts to promote women's contribution and representation in politics and public decision-making.

These efforts must begin from other governance units, such as ministerial appointments and party representatives. Going by available data from the office of the Secretary to Government of the Federation (SGF), fewer women than men are being appointed into offices, which can boost female political participation. For instance, in 2016, only seven women were appointed ministers, which decreased in 2017 to five. Female ministers appointed in 2018 and 2019 were six and seven, respectively.

There is work to be done before we can boast of or celebrate the growth in political participation diversity that Kenya is recording.

Regarding the final T, I bet you already know there are no spring chickens here, especially when you compare these candidates to the population they hope to lead. For context, one out of two Nigerians is below 35.

Too old

In 2017, a report claimed the average age of Nigeria’s governors was 56 years, with the youngest governor being 42 (Yahaya Bello of Kogi) and the oldest being 67 (Abiola Ajimobi, Abdullahi Ganduje and Aminu Masari of Oyo, Kano and Katsina, respectively), at their inaugurations.

Fast forward to 2023, and the data is slightly better. Statistics from the Independent’s National Electoral Commission (INEC) show that the average age of candidates for the upcoming election is 51. 

One way to lower the participation age was the introduction of the Not Too Young To Run bill in 2018. The bill, now passed into law, sought to reduce the age for contesting state governorship from 35 to 30; presidency from 40 to 30; senator from 35 to 30; house of representatives membership from 30 to 25 and state house of assembly membership from 30 to 25. However, in the assented bill, only the age qualification for governor and senate was retained at 35 years.

Interestingly, 55 years—four years higher than the gubernatorial candidates’ average age and nearly three times the age of an average Nigerian—is the average age of candidates affiliated with the APC and PDP. 

With these parties being the most likely to win gubernatorial elections across the country, we don’t need a crystal ball to tell us our next set of governors will, as usual, at least be in their late fifties.

The ruling party has the second oldest candidates up for governorship elections, while the opposition has the 5th oldest set of candidates, as shown in the above chart.

Putting up more states with increasingly younger candidates vying for governorship should start from these top political parties.

However, this is easier said than done.

For the 2023 elections, the sale of forms by both major parties was typically exorbitant. The APC’s forms for the governorship contest cost ₦50 million, while the PDP’s forms cost ₦21 million. This is before securing the funds needed to contest for delegates in a process overtaken by money. This financial outlay poses a significant barrier that excludes all but the wealthy or connected, who are more likely to be old and male.

Active representation matters

2023 is finally here, and barring any election postponement, we have about 50 days to the governorship election. The data above shows we can expect little to change regarding the kind of people representing Nigerians at the governorship level. Fewer women are up, and among the parties likely to win, the candidates are much older.

So the truth is that Nigeria’s net governors will mostly remain as grumpy (well, maybe except Osun’s dancing governor), but definitely older men.

Still, there are reasons to stay hopeful for subsequent elections. 2023 makes Nigeria’s 24th year of uninterrupted democracy—the longest in our history. Nigerians are more politically aware than ever, as over 93 million Nigerians registered to vote, the highest number on record, with over 9.5 million new voters added to the existing 84 million people registered in previous years.

For the first time in Nigeria’s political history, there’s a powerful third force with growing endorsements and support from political camps.

These vibrant political changes, including the 2020 #endsars protest reverberating globally, suggest Nigeria must increasingly prioritise diversity, equity, and inclusion. Leadership across political institutions and the government need to reflect these, too.

Diversity has known benefits. The representative bureaucracy model, for example, argues that with diversity, the public is better represented in administrative decisions. Age, race, ethnicity, and sex help ensure all groups' interests are considered in bureaucratic decision-making. 

Therefore, we ought to ensure younger candidates and more women have a real shot at making decisions on the issues plaguing Nigerians.

As the Nigerian population becomes increasingly politically aware, leadership that does not reflect the country’s diversity fuels concerns about genuine interest and access to an office that should serve everyone.  Christine Lagarde, former managing director of the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and now President of the European Central Bank, argued gender diversity alone contributes to one-fifth of the improvements in  GDP, boosting productivity.

But before all this work is done, brace up for the struggle.

The 2023 governorship candidates represent a tiny portion of the Nigerian population—less than 3%  of Nigerians are male and between 50-55 years.

In other words, most electorates will find it hard to select candidates who reflect or represent their interests based on their demography.